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ETP Weekly :Gold Price Breaks Up Through 200DMA, Investors Start to Nibble

The gold price broke through US$1,300oz and then up through its 200 day moving average (dma) last week as dollar weakness following weak US economic data helped to build momentum. ……

ETF Securities Research

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan joined Argentina in devaluing its currency, as emerging market currency contagion hit the country. With fears of a potential crisis still lingering in the background, investors favored allocations to gold and silver ETPs last week as a hedge against potential worst-case scenarios. The Fed’s incoming Chairman reaffirmed that the central bank will maintain a low interest rate policy for an extended period of time also helped buoy gold and silver prices. Despite large January imports from China, investors reduced positions in copper last week, while tactically increasing allocations in agriculture and energy.

Long gold ETPs see US$9.1mn of inflows as price breaks through US$1,300oz and its 200 day moving average on weak Dollar. Soft economic data from the US, coupled with re-affirmed continued stimulus from the Fed, weighed on the US dollar last week, in turn pushing the gold price higher. Investors appear to have been reassured the Fed will maintain stimulus for a “considerable time” as the “labour market is far from complete”, according to new Fed Chairman Yellen’s testimony to the Congress. The last time gold traded around these levels was in November 2013, before the Fed started tapering. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan joined Argentina in devaluing its currency last week, as emerging market currency contagion hit the country, spurring investors’ demand for safe havens. Long silver ETPs also saw net inflows of US$5.7mn, on EM woes and hopes of continued stimulus from the Fed.

ETFS Corn (CORN) sees US$21.2mn of inflows, the largest since May 2008, on continued price weakness. The USDA now expects corn acreage to decrease by 2% in 2014 and forecasts prices to average US$3.65 per bushel in 2014/2015, against US$4.50 as of 2013/2014. Wheat ETPs also received strong inflows last week, totalling US$4.4mn, on lower ending stocks expectations. The USDA unexpectedly revised domestic and global wheat inventories down last week, suggesting wheat market might be tighter than expected.

Henry Hub natural gas spot price surges to over US$5.4 mmBtu driving US$8.2mn into long and leveraged natural gas ETPs. It was reported that US natural gas inventories fell 27% below the five-year average last week, as cold weather continued to engulf the US. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), January was the coldest year start since 2001. A blast in a Kentucky natural gas pipeline on Thursday also contributed to the price increase. We anticipate price declines in the coming weeks as the cold weather subsides.

ETFS Copper (COPA) sees another week of outflows, bringing the month total to US$85mn, on concerns EM crisis may derail demand. In addition, the market is expecting strong copper production growth as a result of past capital investments coming into pipeline in 2014. However, should those expectations be disappointed, the copper price could potentially react strongly. Meanwhile, copper demand remains robust with Chinese imports up 53% in January from a year earlier. Although forward purchases ahead of the New Year celebrations might have played a role, China’s appetite for copper and other industrial metals remains strong.

Key events to watch this week. The Fed minutes scheduled to be released this week will likely be in focus, as investors will try to gather the pace of further tapering and/or potential tightening. PMI manufacturing numbers for the Eurozone will also be monitored. After January’s disappointing numbers, the Markit US preliminary PMI will be watched closely.




Although gold often gains during extreme events, the start of the first US Federal shutdown in seventeen years last week failed to lift the gold price. Investors appear to be looking through the storm and are focused on assets that will either benefit from the continuation of the global growth recovery or are generally uncorrelated with debt risk.  Cotton and sugar gained 2.3% and 1.8% last week, bouncing from lows hit in September, but without strong news driving the trend. Platinum and palladium fell 3.6% and 2.5% respectively. That comes despite a 17% rise in Japanese auto sales (to a 14-month high) and a 12.1% rise in UK car sales (to a five-year high). US car sales also remained brisk, despite the timing of Labor Day distorting the monthly statistics. Autocatalyts are the primary source of demand for the platinum group metals (PGMs). The strike that started two weeks ago was still on-going last week at Amplats, constraining the supply of PGMs.

    MA Weekly 07.10.13 1


US equities remain under pressure as the negotiations over raising the US debt ceiling continue. The S&P 500 fell for the second consecutive week as Republicans and Democrats continued to fight over the budget and debt ceiling. European equities have also been sensitive to the political turmoil in the US. The Euro Stoxx 50® Investable Volatility Index, which provides exposure to the forward implied volatility of the Euro Stoxx 50® Index, surged 5% last week, followed by the FTSE® MIB Super Short Strategy Index and the ShortDAX® x2 Index, up 3.5% and 1.4% respectively. Global equities are likely to remain volatile and under pressure as we get closer to the estimated 17 October hard deadline for lifting the debt ceilding.

MA Weekly 07.10.13 2


Safe haven currencies benefit as US fiscal negotiations drag on. The Japanese Yen (JPY) was the best performing G10 currency last week as investors sold risky assets and paid back JPY loans on growing concern about the lack of progress on US fiscal and debt negotiations.  For similar reasons the Swiss Franc (CHF) and even the Euro (EUR) also rallied against the US dollar last week. The British Pound (GBP) held up, continuing the trend of the past three months. However, towards the end of the week the currency showed some weakness, indicating the rally may be peaking. In our view, the GBP is one of the more overvalued G10 currencies and – despite recent rhetoric – has one of the more dovish central banks. We therefore believe the currency is particularly vulnerable to a sharp drop once growth data stop surprising to the upside.

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